Readiness

I. Executive Summary

Summarize key findings, drawing on NOAA and Colorado State University hurricane forecasts for 2025, FEMA Public Assistance funding data, and insights from Weather Tiger forecasts indicating a likely two-hurricane scenario for Florida.

II. Legislative and Budgetary Context

Use Florida Senate Bill 180 as a primary reference for recent legislative actions impacting emergency management. Include analysis of Florida's balanced budget requirement and tradeoffs between tax increases and service reductions. Cite FDEM reporting requirements and gaps highlighted in bill analyses.

III. State of the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP)

Assess the CEMP as a framework document, noting its lack of impairment risk assessment per FASB ACS 360 standards. Discuss its role as a 'user manual' outlining the State's Mitigation & Recovery (M&R) asset group capabilities.

IV. Market Confidence and Risk Financing

Highlight concerns about market response to Florida's emergency financing. Reference Financial Times analysis on US catastrophe bonds and potential downgrades. Discuss supply chain risks due to tariffs and labor shortages.

V. Local Government Readiness

Incorporate case studies from Florida counties with varying resilience performance. Discuss the Executive Branch's reduction of FEMA fund allocations to localities. Identify red flags for underfunded or vulnerable local governments.

VI. Supply Chain and Operational Capacity

Analyze the reliance on imported construction materials post-disaster. Note the impact of tariffs on material prices and delivery times, and labor scarcity due to immigration enforcement. Reference past examples like the Chinese drywall issue post-Hurricane Charley.

VII. Risk Forecasts and Exposure Modeling

Integrate forecast data from CSU, NOAA, and Weather Tiger. Identify specific regional vulnerabilities within Florida based on historical disaster impacts and current exposure trends.

VIII. Stress Testing and Scenario Planning

Propose stress testing M&R segments for both average and extreme hurricane scenarios. Include operational interdependencies and human systems stress factors such as workforce fatigue and turnover rates.

IX. Governance Gaps and Florida Disaster Governance Observatory (FDGO) Proposal

Justify the FDGO based on the failure of self-auditing in government systems. Outline structure as a public-private partnership, referencing best practices from GAO and SEC reporting models. Detail deliverables including annual Readiness Reports and technical audits. Suggest funding support from insurers, reinsurers, and catastrophe bond investors.

X. Recommendations

Develop a phased set of recommendations. Immediate actions could include improved reporting and data transparency. Medium-term reforms should address CEMP modernization and adjustments to SB180. Long-term goals include institutionalizing the FDGO and overhauling disaster accounting methods. Provide a legislative dashboard to guide next Session priorities.